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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."